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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.