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Increasing apprehensions have emerged regarding the possibility of armed conflict involving East African countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a fierce verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his country's sea access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it without sea access.

Subsequently, a military clash broke out in which numerous people lost their lives.

Current Remarks from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and implied the desire to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "error" of losing access to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "rectified tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Answer to the Statements

Amid continuous threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea calling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a policy of claiming back former lands.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on 16 September that efforts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

However, in the country, government media has broadcast training completions of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The head of staff section of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Previous Background of the Tension

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by Italian colonisers.

Following World War II, it was then managed by the British military before turning into a federated part of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor ended this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle followed, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then confirmed by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their common border, causing conflict in 1998.

Though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries stayed at in dispute.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two agreed to a statement that the conflict was concluded – a action that gained the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The two governments were then cooperators in the country's previous civil war in the northern region.

But ties have since broken down once more.