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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."